By David Mitchell
Last week, silver closed at US$48.60, gold at US$4,113.49, and platinum at US$1,601, capping another week of volatility across the precious metals complex.
Following a wave of bearish media commentary suggesting that the “bull market in precious metals is over,” it’s worth noting that many of these narratives come from commentators who have not participated in this market — and who appear perplexed by the sustained strength of gold and silver since the early 2000s.
The truth is simple: nothing has changed in the macroeconomic landscape to justify an end to this bull cycle. In fact, the underlying structural imbalances that ignited it have only intensified.
The Macro Reality: Debt, Leverage, and Policy Recklessness
Let’s ask the obvious questions:
- Have the massive global debt loads suddenly disappeared?
- Has financial leverage been unwound?
- Have governments rediscovered fiscal discipline and balanced budgets?
The answer is clear — no. The situation has worsened.
The Bank of England recently warned that the current surge in private credit mirrors conditions before the 2008 subprime crisis, while the International Monetary Fund has flagged the rapid buildup of shadow credit as a systemic threat to the global financial system.
These imbalances are not going away. They’re the very fuel behind the ongoing precious metals bull market.
Western Underexposure: The Calm Before the Storm
One of the most remarkable features of 2025’s price surge is that it occurred without the participation of Western investors.
While central banks continue to accumulate over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually, Western wealth managers, pension funds, and retail investors remain chronically underweight in precious metals.
Meanwhile, global mine supply expands by less than 1% per year, with no major new discoveries on the horizon.
The setup is clear: when Western capital finally turns its attention to this sector, it will be entering an already stretched market — tight in supply and high in demand.
Platinum Strengthens as Beijing Ends Two-Decade Tax Rebate
Platinum prices strengthened late last week following Beijing’s announcement that it will end a 20-year import tax rebate effective November 1st.
This rebate, in place since 2003, had allowed select firms to import platinum VAT-free, giving them a significant edge. The removal of this policy will level the playing field and reshape China’s platinum import landscape.
The announcement triggered an immediate surge in Shanghai platinum premiums over global benchmarks as buyers rushed to secure supply ahead of the change. With structural supply deficits already in place, this move adds further upward pressure on platinum prices.
Silver Market Consolidation: A Healthy Reset Before the Next Move
The recent pullback in silver prices has been healthy and necessary. After months of strong gains, a brief period of consolidation was inevitable.
According to MSA’s Weekly Momentum Average (WMA), silver has completed a five-week momentum correction, historically a signal that a new uptrend phase may soon begin.
Elevated lease rates continue to indicate tight physical supply, reinforcing the bullish outlook. David Mitchell expects silver to advance toward US$52, with further potential beyond that as the physical shortage deepens.
Today’s mild weakness appears linked to progress at the ASEAN Conference in Kuala Lumpur, where reports suggest that Donald Trump is moving forward with trade negotiations with China — temporarily easing market tensions.
A Critical Mineral Reclassification Could Redefine Silver’s Role
Looking ahead, anticipation is building around the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 reclassification, which is expected to designate silver as a critical mineral for the first time.
This shift would elevate silver’s strategic importance, recognizing it as an essential industrial and technological asset — not just a monetary metal.
Such a reclassification would mark a new era for silver, transforming it from a traditional hedge into a strategic commodity vital to clean energy, communications, and national security.
Conclusion: The Bull Market Evolves
Despite short-term pullbacks, the precious metals bull market is far from over.
- Global debt continues to climb.
- Fiscal discipline remains absent.
- Physical supply is increasingly constrained.
- Central banks are still buying.
For those holding physical gold, silver, and platinum, the outlook remains deeply constructive. The world is only beginning to recognize what seasoned investors already know:
In times of instability, hard assets with no counterparty risk are the ultimate refuge.
Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any investment products. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Indigo Precious Metals Group and Auctus Metal Portfolios accept no liability for any losses arising from reliance on the information contained herein. Clients should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.
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