All available evidence, hard data, market structure, central bank activity, physical demand, supply constraints and long-term price action, continues to demonstrate that we remain in a major multi-year secular bull market in precious metals.
This latest revaluation cycle began in earnest in 2024 and, in my opinion, this will represent one of the most powerful phases of the entire move, effectively the final and most violent wave of a much larger structural cycle that started in Year 2002, potentially targeting the Pi-cycle timeframe of 2032–2034. This Pi Cycle of 8.6 years starting from 2024 break higher, will encapsulate 5 major waves, 1st Wave higher from 2024 into Jan 2026. Wave 2 which we are in now, being the sharp corrective wave which in my view is now near exhaustion and hence is important to recognise in building wealth.
In this note and importantly over the next few days, I will demonstrate overwhelming evidence, I want to focus on the overriding dynamics now underway and, more importantly, the real question investors should be asking:
What does the risk-versus-reward equation look like from here?
Because this is not about emotion.
It is not about headlines.
It is not about whether gold, silver or oil move up or down next week.
It is about probability, valuation, positioning and time horizon.
Investors first need to decide what timeframe they are actually operating in. Are they trading the next few days, or are they investing within one of the most important macro transitions of the last 50 years?
The present global backdrop is the culmination of policies, leverage, debt expansion, monetary debasement and now extreme asset valuation excess that have been inexorably building since the early 1980’s. Against that backdrop, the case for long-term value investing and portfolio protection remains overwhelming.
Our approach has always been simple: identify value, understand the secular cycle, manage risk, take profits when the market gives us the opportunity, and buy quality assets when they are deeply depressed and mispriced.
- That is the job of a serious investor.
- That is the job of a money manager.
Not to be distracted by noise, but to measure value and stay the course.
We are not in the business of pretending we can predict every short-term market move. Whether oil does this next week, or gold does that tomorrow, is far less important than understanding the risk and reward from the price level at which we are starting.
For example, after oil spikes on a geopolitical event such as Iran, the question is not “what is the headline?” The question is: from this price, what is the downside risk, what is the prospective reward, and what probability do we assign to each outcome?
The same discipline applies to precious metals.
History is very clear on this point.
During the greatest gold bull market in history of the 1970’s, gold increased roughly 24 times in value, 2,400%, yet most investors would never have had the discipline to hold through the volatility required to capture that move.
During that bull market, gold suffered four major pullbacks of more than 20%:
- 1973: down 29% over four months, then roughly 100% higher four months later
- 1974: down 26% over three months, then roughly 50% higher five months later
- 1975–1976: down 49% over nine months, then roughly 150% higher within 13 months
- 1978: down 23% in one month, then roughly 320% higher within 14 months
None of those corrections marked the end of the bull market.
Each one did the opposite.
Each correction removed leverage, destroyed weak conviction, reset sentiment, and prepared the market for the next major advance.
Most importantly, the final rally was the most explosive phase of the entire cycle.
That is the lesson investors need to remember today.
A pullback inside a secular bull market is not automatically a warning that the thesis has failed. Very often, it is the market doing the necessary work before the next leg higher begins.
Today, we are again in a secular precious-metals bull market, nothing has changed to alter that trend or the view, in fact the bullish drivers have only grown larger. The current weakness must be viewed through that lens.
The crowd sees falling prices and concludes the bull market is over.
The disciplined investor sees falling prices, improving fundamentals and washed-out sentiment, and understands that the risk-versus-reward equation is becoming more attractive, not less.
That is the difference between trading emotion and investing through a cycle.
And in this cycle, the probabilities remain firmly on the side of those who understand value, patience and the mathematics of long-term monetary devaluation that is now wholly inescapable.
Over the next few days, I will be demonstrating, through charts, data and market visuals, just some of the key macro drivers now supporting a major move higher in gold and the broader precious-metals complex.
These include:
- Global debt growth and forward debt projections
- Major bank forecasts for gold into the end of 2026
- Sentiment indicators now sitting at extreme lows
- Technical charts increasingly pointing a low is established
- China’s physical buying trends, which have historically signalled major price moves
- Central bank gold accumulation
- The unmistakable seasonal trend into December
- U.S. dollar cycles
- The rapidly deteriorating global macro and geopolitical backdrop
The market may remain noisy in the short term, but the larger structural drivers continue to strengthen.