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Platinum at a Breaking Point: What Soaring Lease Rates Reveal About the Next Commodities Squeeze

In an era where liquidity defines market confidence, the platinum market is flashing a rare and powerful signal — one that investors can no longer afford to ignore.

Platinum at a Breaking Point: What Soaring Lease Rates Reveal About the Next Commodities Squeeze
13 Jun 2025
Moes Moes

From lease rates exploding past 10%, to physical metal shortages now impacting industrial users, platinum is rapidly entering what may be the most critical supply squeeze in over a decade.

As mainstream headlines remain focused on gold and equities, platinum is quietly tightening under the radar — and the data tells a story that should alarm and intrigue every serious investor.


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Source: Bloomberg, CME, NASDAQ, LBMA — Implied lease rate calculated as SOFR 1-month net of XPT one-month swap rate

A Market on the Brink

The chart above paints a clear picture: theimplied one-month platinum lease ratehas surged to historic highs, nearing15%. This is not simply a blip in volatility — it is a fundamental warning aboutscarcity.

For context, lease rates reflect the cost of borrowing physical platinum. When these rates soar, it signals a severe lack of available supply in the market. And this time, the spike is more violent and sustained than anything we’ve seen since 2020.

According to David Mitchell ofIndigo Precious Metals, the root cause is simple:

“There’s no liquidity to borrow platinum. Massive physical shortages. And we’re in a giant supply-demand deficit.”

Why It Matters

Most people associate platinum with jewellery or catalytic converters. But its industrial role is far more expansive and strategic:

  • Hydrogen fuel cells
  • Automotive emissions control
  • Petroleum refining
  • Medical and chemical instruments
  • Electronics and thermocouples

 Now imagine those sectors trying to function without reliable access to platinum.

This is precisely the risk we’re heading toward. When lease rates hit such elevated levels, industrial buyers are faced with a choice: either restock now at high prices, or risk not having material at all.

David notes:

“Once one industrial player starts restocking, they all move — especially when borrowing liquidity becomes unviable.”

This domino effect could triggerpanic restocking, compounding the supply squeeze and pushing prices sharply higher.

The Sleeping Giant: Investment Demand

What’s remarkable is thatinvestment demand hasn’t even arrived yet. Unlike gold and silver, platinum has yet to benefit from major inflows by retail or institutional investors.

But once the story breaks — once investors realize platinum is in structural shortfall — the reallocation will be fierce.

And it won’t take much. Platinum is a small market compared to gold or oil. Even modest capital flows can push prices dramatically higher, especially in a physically tight environment like the one we’re now entering.

To get exposure before the rush begins, explorebullion products from Indigo Precious Metals, including platinum bars, coins, and gram-based savings solutions.

Supply Is Fragile, by Design

Over70% of the world’s platinumcomes from South Africa, a country plagued by energy instability, regulatory complexity, and deep labor challenges. This concentrated supply chain is inherently risky.

Even without geopolitical shocks, platinum mining is struggling to keep pace with demand. In 2024, the World Platinum Investment Council estimated amarket deficit of over 500,000 ounces. Early indicators in 2025 suggest that gap is widening further.

These dynamics put platinum in a unique category:

  • Industriallyessential
  • Geopoliticallyvulnerable
  • Financiallyunder-owned

It’s the kind of setup that long-term investors dream of — if they recognize it early.

To understand why platinum deserves a place in your portfolio, read this primer onwhy buy precious metals, where we outline the case for hard assets in a debased currency world.

 

Physical Metal: The Only Reliable Exposure

When markets tighten, paper exposure to metals becomes risky. Derivatives, ETFs, and swap-based instruments may offer price correlation — butnot delivery certainty.

If platinum availability truly collapses (as lease rates suggest it might), only holders ofphysical bullionwill be protected.

AtIndigo Precious Metals, we emphasizevaulted, allocated metal— fully owned by you, and held outside the banking system in secure facilities across Singapore and Malaysia.

New to the space? Our walkthrough onhow to buyprecious metals covers everything from order execution to long-term storage strategies.

 

Consistent Accumulation: Gram-by-Gram

For investors who prefer to build positions slowly, theBullion Gram Savingsprogram offers a scalable way to accumulate platinum and other metals at your own pace.

This approach is especially useful during periods of volatility, helping you average into a market with asymmetric upside.

What Comes Next?

The current stress in the lease market is more than a pricing anomaly — it’s asystemic warning.

  • Physical metal is increasingly hard to find
  • Borrowing costs are becoming prohibitive
  • Industrial users are approaching a tipping point
  • Investment demand is just beginning to awaken

Add it all together, and we may be witnessing the early stages of a platinum supercycle.

As David Mitchell succinctly puts it:

“Platinum is turning critical. The fundamentals are aligning, and the market is whispering a very loud truth.”

Don’t wait until the whisper becomes a scream.

ExploreIndigo Precious Metalsto learn more about our mission, insights, and how we help clients around the world preserve wealth in turbulent times.

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